Monday, April 21, 2008

A Tad Bit Against the Conventional Wisdom

Tad Devine says Obama will win in Pennsylvania.

Call his reasoning Devine’s Theory of Voter Psychology. This theory can come into play when large numbers of voters wake up on Election Day either undecided or ambivalent about their choice—as has been true in most Democratic primaries and caucuses this season.

Essentially, it holds that when lots of voters can’t make up their minds based on personal feelings about the candidates, they’ll look to broader factors—say, the good of the party—for the deciding element.

That makes a lot of sense and I wonder if most of the predictions and polls I've seens--with the noted exception of Al Giordano--fully weigh and properly consider all the newly registered Democrats.

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