Thursday, June 5, 2008

How NM Shapes up for the GE

Every NM Congress Critter threw a hat in the ring for Pete Domenici's seat. That's not quite as impressive as it may sound because we only have three of'em.

Here's a snapshot of how things look right now:

CD-01 (Tom Udall's seat will stay Dem)

CD-02 (Steve Pearce's seat is a toss up right now.)

The Democrat (Teague) has a name recognition advantage, but the district is pretty conservative. Even most of the Democrats in that CD would be Republicans in other states.

CD03 (Heather Wilson's seat is a toss up)

Although Martin Heinrich is the darling of the progressives he is an unknown quantity when it comes to his ability to organize and campaign. Darren White (R) is VERY popular with Republicans and is not hated by moderate Independents. White also has substantial name recognition because he is currently Bernalillo County sheriff and has served as the head of the state Department of Safety. If Heinrich can tie White to the Bush Administration (which shouldn't be difficult because he supports the war) then Heinrich will probably win in a close election. If he can't, White wins by 6+ points.

NM-Sen: The biggest gift of last night primary was Steve Pearce knocking off Heather Wilson for the Republican nod to be the sacrificial lamb to the Udall. Heather Wilson is a great GE campaigner. Unfortunately, with a low turnout yesterday, only the most fanatical members of the Republican base voted yesterday. In the southern part of the state she was considered a "librul" and Pearce is one of them. Game over. Udall wins by 10+ even if he doesn't campaign well.

New Mexico will go for Obama and he will have very long coattails. Grassroot organizing has been strong here and several longtime Dem office holders were knocked out for better Democrats. Why you ask? My brother is voting for Barack Obama. That is a sure signal that either the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse are about to make an appearance, or a seismic poltical shift has occurred since George H.W.'s son got himself appointed Idiot-in-Chief. I'm an atheist so my money is on the seismic political shift.

Keep your fingers crossed, but it looks pretty good right now. If Obama, and the fired up progressives here in NM keep momentum rolling it could be one hell of a GE for Democrats, and in particular for progressives.

I'll be out doing voter registration drives all this summer and keeping everyone posted about what I hear out in the field.

Have a good'un.

(Cross posted at TPM Cafe)

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