Is Oregon in the Mail Bag for Obama?

Yes, says Poblano at his very fine blog FiveThirtyEight.com and I suspect he is spot on with this insight:

So let's say there's some big event that takes place over the weekend and swings momentum toward Clinton. It won't matter, but for the small percentage of Oregonians who use the drop-box option (in 2004, about 13 percent of the primary ballots were received on election day itself, or about 29 percent of the total returned). For all intents and purposes, the election in Oregon is about two-thirds over. That's why Barack Obama is campaigning in Michigan today; the election is literally in the (mail)bag.

Sounds about right to me. But go read for yourself the blog is great.